NORTH SOUND, FEB. 21: Ready for some wet weather? The North Sound and Western Washington are well below average for precipitation and could use a nice dose of rain and mountain snow.
A series of Pacific weather systems are slated to swing onshore this weekend and into early next week with periods of rain and mild temperatures. The first system arrives later on Friday, Feb. 21, with another on Saturday, and an even wetter system Sunday. Each of these systems are similar to atmospheric rivers, yet not as wet.
Nevertheless, rain amounts across Western Washington will pile up over the weekend and into early next week. Forecasted rain totals for the coast will tally 4 to 6 inches, while the interior lowlands including the North Sound region will receive between 2 and 4 inches of rain.
The mountains will also get soaked with the Olympics expected to get upwards of 10 inches of precipitation and the Cascades in the 7 to 10-inch range through Monday. The milder air mass means snow levels will rise this weekend to around 6,000 ft or so, not good for building the mountain snowpack.
The good news is that the current mountain snowpack will act like a sponge and soak in the rain. The not-so-good news is that the extra weight from soaking in that rain on steeper slopes means a rising threat of avalanches over the weekend. In addition, snow on the ground along the lower slopes of the mountains will likely melt and runoff into the rivers.
Fortunately, thanks to the mid-winter dry period from mid-January until last week (which has left area rivers running lower than usual) leaves lots of room for the incoming heavy amounts of rainfall and any lower-elevation snowmelt. Yet, this situation bears watching for the potential of rivers rising to flood stage, particularly those streams running off the Olympics.
This series of Pacific storms will also generate blustery conditions primarily along the coast and the north interior from about Everett northward, especially on Saturday. Winds in these areas are expected to blow from 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph. Winds elsewhere in Western Washington will range from 15 to 30 mph.
For those who enjoy storm-watching along the coast, this is a good weekend to relish in the event. Not only will it be windy, but the surf is expected to be active with ocean swells of 15 to 20 ft. Just be sure to watch from a higher location since the active surf will run up on the beaches and carry logs onshore.
Temperatures this weekend will be mild, about 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year. Normal high temperatures in the North Sound are in the lower 50s. Highs through early next week will be in the 50s with lows mainly in the 40s.
Rainfall in the region so far this year is well behind average. Paine Field has had only about one inch of rain thus far, close to 6 inches or only 17% of normal.
This weekend’s series of soggy storms should help make a dent in the precipitation deficit across the region. Yet in the mountains, the higher snow levels will not help build the snowpack with the exception of the higher elevations and volcanoes. The snow water in the current snowpack is about 80% of normal in the Olympics, 70% in the north and central Cascades and just over 100% for the south Cascades.
The latest weather outlook through the rest of this month and into March reflects cooler-than-average temperatures and nudges the odds for wetter-than-usual conditions. Yet as the calendar moves into the middle of next week, the wet weather will taper off revealing more sunshine and high temperatures edging close to 60 degrees. The last time Paine Field reached 60 was on Nov. 8 with a high of 64 degrees.
The sunshine and mild temperatures later next week may give a sense of spring. Some call it a false spring. How about calling it a taste of spring? The days keep getting longer by about 3 and a half minutes per day with just under a month to go until the Spring Equinox. The year’s first 7 a.m. sunrise will be on Sunday with the sun rising over the Cascades easing into the 6 o’clock hour next week.
Prepare for wet and blustery weather this weekend. That sunshine later next week should feel good.
