This weekend’s weather could be ‘en-lightning’

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EVERETT, AUG. 16: This weekend’s weather could be quite ‘en-lightning’! Showers and thunderstorms will likely track from south to north through Western Washington and into the North Sound late Saturday into Sunday morning.

Currently, low temperatures at the upper level are developing off the Pacific Northwest coast and will swing a prominent weather system embedded in southerly flow aloft through the region. This weather pattern will trigger the showers and thunderstorms.

The thunderstorms will come with plenty of lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and blustery winds. It has been a while since the region has had such a thunderstorm outbreak. The last such event was in May of 2017. Parts of Thurston County were hammered by bursts of heavy rainfall and brief strong damaging winds, blowing down trees and producing local power outages.

Saturday, Aug. 24 will begin with plenty of sunshine with temperatures rising well into the 70s. The day’s heat will help set the stage as the weather system moving north into the region helps to destabilize the atmosphere by Saturday evening, resulting in showers and thunderstorms.

This weather system will move north of the region later Sunday morning with lingering spotty showers and cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

This summer thus far has been quite warm and dry. The last substantial widespread rainfall was back in early June. The rainfall associated with this weekend’s weather system unfortunately will likely be more spotty versus widespread, yet helpful regarding the ongoing dry conditions. The moisture and higher humidity with this weather pattern should help the wildfire-fighting efforts. Currently there are fires near Brinnon on the Olympic Peninsula.

The lightning with these thunderstorms also could start local fires. Yet, the showers and moisture in the air with higher humidity should dampen any such fire starts.

For those with outdoor activities planned for late Saturday, make sure to have alternate plans in hand if threatening weather approaches. And remember the phrase, when “thunder roars, go indoors”. Avoid tall objects like trees to seek shelter. The state of Washington has not had a lightning-related fatality since 1996.  Let’s keep it that way.

The Outlook for This Fall and Winter

Looking ahead toward this fall and winter, the latest seasonal weather outlook for the nation including the North Sound was just released and it reflects a change heading into this fall.

Earlier editions predicted above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall through September. Now, the outlook shows equal chances of above, near, or below-average temperatures and odds in favor of above-average rainfall.

Given how warm and dry this summer has been, this new seasonal weather outlook provides better news, particularly for the threat of wildfires. That threat remains high at this moment until more significant rainfall does indeed arrive. So continue to avoid “wildfire starters” such as tossing burning materials out of vehicles, and outdoor burning.

The outlook also indicates that La Nina will return for this winter. La Nina is when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific tropical waters are cooler than average, resulting in the North Pacific storm track spending more time at our latitude. La Nina winters often are cooler and wetter than average, and provide a healthy mountain snowpack.

The latest seasonal outlook shows that familiar La Nina pattern with increased odds of cooler and wetter than average conditions from late fall into spring. La Nina winters are also prone to produce lowland snow events, just like the three consecutive La Nina winters did starting with the winter of 2020-2021.

November also looks wetter than average and is one of the number one months of the year for flooding. Given the expected La Nina winter, now is a good time to prepare for significant winter weather. Go to ready.gov or your local county emergency management websites for helpful winter readiness information for your home, business and pets.