NORTH SOUND, JAN. 23: Does it seem like it is unusually dry and has not rained in quite some time? The last significant rainfall in Western Washington was back on Jan. 10. Bellingham had just over a half inch of rain, and Paine Field Everett, had barely over a quarter of an inch.
Since then, it has been quite dry with plenty of cool January sunshine and areas of fog. At this point, much of the North Sound is on track to finish the month in the top 5 driest Januarys on record.
Some in the region are now asking: What does this dry January mean for the rest of the year?
During La Niña winters, Western Washington tends to be wetter and cooler than average. The primary storm track during typical La Niña winters drives Pacific weather systems into the region with rain in the lowlands and snow in the mountains. That was the case during much of December and into early January.
Yet it is not uncommon for that storm track to buckle and head north into Alaska and the Yukon with high pressure aloft residing just off the Pacific Northwest coast. That is the weather pattern that has created the recent dry cool weather. In the meantime, that storm track has surged cold air into the central and eastern portions of the nation, including the recent unusual snowfall along the Gulf Coast region from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
At some point, the current weather pattern will break down. If longer-range forecast charts are on track, that break down and return to milder wetter conditions may come to fruition right at the end of this month – Thursday or Friday. The transition back to milder conditions sometimes results in a brief period of lowland snow – stay tuned on how that scenario will play out.
The latest weather outlooks into February continue to show cooler and wetter than average conditions. In fact, it is possible early in February, a surge of colder air from Western Canada could sweep through Western Washington and this time be accompanied by moisture for a threat of lowland snow.
In the mountains, snow fell for much of the latter part of November into early this month, giving the snowpack a good head start for the season. Since then though, little if any fresh snow has fallen.
According to the latest Northwest Avalanche Center snowpack report, most Cascade sites including Stevens Pass, Snoqualmie Pass and Mt. Baker were in the 70 to 90 percent of average while White Pass was close to 125 percent of average. The water equivalent in the snow this week showed a range of 65 to 85 percent of average in the northern and central Cascades, while the southern Cascades was around 110 percent of average.
The mountain snowpack usually peaks around the first of April, so there is time to resume piling up the snow. The latest seasonal weather outlook for February into April continues to reflect good odds on cooler and wetter conditions for the region, good news for the mountain snowpack.
The seasonal outlook for this summer also maintains to show the odds for warmer and drier than average conditions, a pattern that has been prevalent so far this century.
The days are growing longer by about two and a half minutes per day at this point. The first 5 p.m. sunset of the year is set for this Saturday, Jan. 25. By the end of the month, daylight hours will have surpassed nine and a half hours, a sharp contrast from the 8 hours and 20 minutes on the shortest day of the year back on the winter solstice in December.
Enjoy the mid-winter sunshine that is forecast to continue through the middle of next week. After that, anticipate more active weather to resume heading into February.