(WASHINGTON) — Nevada’s gubernatorial primary has resulted in a face-off between incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic nominee Attorney General Aaron Ford and the race is indicative of whether GOP governors in battleground states can survive while distancing themselves from President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, a dynamic with implications for 2028.
Economic anxiety, conflict overseas, a polarizing mass deportation program and low approval ratings for the president might become headwinds for Lombardo, despite a Republican presidential candidate carrying the state for the first time in two decades in 2024.
Nevada offers a particularly revealing test case: a tourism-heavy economy, a working-class Latino electorate and an expanding bloc of nonpartisan voters. Since Lombardo’s 2022 victory, registered independents have surged in the state.
Las Vegas tourism fell 7.5% last year, while unemployment remains among the nation’s highest.
Asked whether he can guarantee unemployment will fall, Lombardo said in a statement that since he took office, “… Inflation has come down, wages are rising, housing prices are stabilizing, and Nevada leads the nation in post pandemic job creation, as well as both small business and wage growth.”
His supporters have pointed to his work on the state’s education system.
“The governor has worked to bridge the gap in per pupil spending with several billion dollars in funding without raising taxes, as well as open enrollment, more school choice, and accountability reforms,” John Burke, spokesman for a pro-Lombardo PAC, said. “We’re already seeing results, graduation rates are growing and students are getting the resources they need to succeed.”
Ford, who was a single father in college relying on food stamps and Medicaid, said he’s focused on affordability.
“Nevadans … cannot afford a home, they cannot afford health care, they can’t afford gas, they can’t afford groceries, and it’s all this Lombardo-Trump economy doesn’t work for the working people, it’s working for this billionaire class,” Ford said in an interview with ABC News.
Ford has been endorsed by former Vice President Kamala Harris and Nevada’s Democratic congressional delegation.
“He’s battled fentanyl being trafficked across our southern border, gone after fraudulent landlords who are jacking up prices on working families, and won more than $1 billion in settlements from taking on big drug companies,” said Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., in a statement to ABC News.
Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff endorsed by Trump, said in a KLAS interview that Nevadans may need to “feel a little pain” over Trump’s tariff policies to see job growth — a line Democrats have campaigned on.
“[Trump] ran on it, he was very vocal about it and very transparent about it in how he was going to accomplish that,” Lombardo said last year. “So, I think we maybe need to feel a little pain in the short term and hopefully in the long-term it’s a huge benefit for us.”
Ford has taken the Trump administration to court more than 40 times, including over tariffs.
“I sued up those tariffs, I won, and I’m not going to stop until Nevadans get the $1,700 of stolen money out of the pockets they had to pay in extra taxes because of those tariffs,” Ford said.
Peter Guzman, president of Nevada’s Latin Chamber of Commerce, told ABC News that Lombardo had conversations with the White House that resulted in Nevada avoiding large-scale immigration raids.
“We’ve been able to prevent any kind of chaos when it comes to ICE, because of his relationships, not only with Trump administration, but also because of his years in law enforcement,” Guzman said.
Nevada Republicans have criticized Ford for spending at least 322 days out of state, mostly attending professional conferences, according to a Nevada Independent review of his calendar. GOP campaign ads have branded him “high-flying Aaron Ford.”
Ford called the attacks “juvenile” and said working with attorneys general nationwide helped “address issues that transcend state borders.”
In 2022, Lombardo ousted incumbent Democrat Gov. Steve Sisolak by just 1.5%.
“The average election in Nevada is often decided by a very narrow margin. Both parties have their constituencies, but there’s a group in the middle that decides these races and the best candidate will earn those voters,” Burke said.
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