Las Vegas has emerged as a top destination for wealthy Washingtonians considering a move.
In March, Seattle-area real estate agents told The Center Square that luxury clients were looking to shift domiciles to get ahead of the state’s changing tax landscape. That trend has continued, said Dean Jones, CEO and owner of Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty.
Randy Char, a top broker with Las Vegas Sotheby’s International Realty, has completed about $100 million in transactions in the Las Vegas Valley this year. He’s identified Washington buyers as the largest new buyer group he is seeing.
These buyers are targeting a small pool of high-end communities, including one Char and Jones have dubbed “a mini Mercer Island.”
The trend comes as Washington prepares to impose a 9.9% tax on households with more than $1 million in adjusted gross income, starting in 2028. Initiative 645, which would repeal the tax, is certified for the Nov. 3 ballot.
“The repeal will help,” Jones said, “but the other driver for Washington residents is the capital gains tax and the estate tax.”
Nevada has no individual state income tax, making it an obvious alternative for households considering a change in domicile. But Jones’ latest observations suggest the story is not a straightforward tax exodus.
From tax planning to lifestyle change
While some Washingtonians are hedging against the new tax by establishing residency elsewhere, others are simply buying second homes in tax-friendly destinations like Las Vegas, Austin and Nashville.
Jones’ firm has launched a “Believing Las Vegas” campaign that highlights the area’s luxury market and properties – including Four Seasons Private Residences in Henderson, where Jones says presales are 90% sold out – as well as the lifestyle of world-class restaurants, sunshine and sports. Some buyers initially look at Nevada as a tax shelter, Jones said, but he believes some will move forward regardless of what happens with Washington’s tax.
“It’s a lifestyle play as much as a domicile program,” he said. “They will want optionality.”
Jones expects a repeal would reduce pressure on wealthy Washington residents to establish another domicile. Some luxury listings could be pulled or repriced, while buyers who have been waiting for more high-end inventory could move more aggressively.
Some sellers, he said, have already invested in photography, video and other marketing in anticipation of a move. Others have negotiated arrangements with brokers to recover some marketing expenses if they cancel their listing plans.
A luxury market in transition
The Las Vegas activity is unfolding as Seattle’s luxury housing market is seeing high inventory and transaction activity.
For waterfront properties priced above $5 million in West Bellevue and Kirkland, active listings remain above 2025 levels, while sold properties are up about 50% year to date and pending sales are up 26.7%, based on Northwest Multiple Listing Service data.
Those figures represent a narrow slice of the market, but they fit with a larger increase in high-end inventory Jones and other brokers have been watching since the spring.
“This supports our theory that the tax policies and some other dynamics like a bullish stock market have created more liquidity,” Jones said. “It will be interesting to see if some buyers purchase a home and have a contingency dependent on the outcome of the I-645.”
In March, King County listings of $5 million or more had increased 40% from the same period a year earlier, while pending sales were up 78% and closed sales were up 66.7%. In July, Seattle’s median sale price was about $899,000, essentially flat from a year earlier. Homes took a median 12 days to sell, compared with 10 days a year earlier, while the number of homes sold declined 6.1%.
Meanwhile, Las Vegas’ overall housing market has been somewhat stronger. Its median sale price was about $460,000 in the three months ending in July, up 2.2% from a year earlier, while the number of homes sold increased 11.4%.
Not everyone is leaving
Increased inventory in the Seattle area can give wealthy buyers opportunities to trade up. His brokerage has seen that in a recent $25 million Magnolia sale – the transaction was conducted off-market and involved an inbound buyer looking for the Pacific Northwest lifestyle, who was not concerned about taxes.
“Yes, inbound wealth is happening too, and new money,” Jones said.
Jones also pointed to MARI in Bellevue and Park 88, a planned luxury condominium project with a 2029 delivery. Eastside broker Becky Gray has reported more than $30 million in Park 88 presales and expects that figure to exceed $50 million.
Jones believes the tax discussion is now intersecting with a broader set of decisions about lifestyle, retirement, second homes, investment and where wealthy families want to spend their time.
The result may not be a clean exodus from Seattle. Instead, wealthy residents could increasingly maintain homes and investments in multiple states, giving themselves flexibility over where they live and where they establish residency.
For Seattle’s luxury market, that may prove to be the more lasting effect of Washington’s tax debate.