EVERETT — It is only mid-July, and already Eastern Washington has had over two dozen wildfires. There have also been a pair of wildfires in the Northern Cascades, and the Mount Tom Creek fire in the Olympics. The wildfire season is well underway.
Conditions are dry statewide, particularly east of the Cascades. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Eastern Washington is in moderate or severe drought, while much of Western Washington and the North Sound is abnormally dry.
If longer range weather forecast charts are on track, there is no significant or wetting rain (0.25 inch of rain) in sight through near the end of this month.
In the North Sound, the last significant rainfall came on June 9th, over a month ago. Everett – Paine Field, Monroe, Darrington, and Sedro Woolley all received an inch of rain or more that day.
Historically, mid-July to mid-August is the driest time of the year. So conditions are on track to become even drier. Light fuels like unirrigated grasses and shrubs are ready to burn now. Larger fuels like trees are not far behind.
What Is a Red Flag Warning
What is a Red Flag Warning? Many parts of Eastern Washington have already had several days in the past month or so when a Red Flag Warning is in effect.
A Red Flag Warning is issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) when weather and environmental conditions are ripe for a rapidly spreading wildfire for a targeted geographic area within the next 24 hours or imminent. The environmental conditions include very dry conditions.
The weather side of the formula includes very low relative humidity, windy conditions, and the potential for lightning. Any fire starts will experience rapid fire growth.
There is also a more Extreme Red Flag Warning when all these conditions are met at a more severe level, particularly very strong winds that can fan the flames and move the fire quickly, leaving little time to get out of harm’s way.
The Emergency Alert System (EAS) and Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) reaching smart phones in the warning area is activated by local authorities.
A Fire Weather Watch is issued by the NWS with a greater lead time of more than 24 hours when those hazardous weather environmental conditions are anticipated. This lead time gives firefighting agencies and the public the opportunity to prepare in advance in case a wildfire does break out in another day or so.
Weather This Week
The weather pattern for the North Sound this week involves moderating air from the Pacific Ocean to keep temperatures more seasonable. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s, and up to the mid-80s in the usually warmest locations like the Cascade foothills.
A very weak weather system is anticipated to cross the region Thursday, offering a limited chance of light rain. Otherwise, the week is expected to offer plenty of sunshine along with areas of morning clouds.
By this coming weekend and into early next week, higher pressure over the Rocky Mountain region is forecast to shift west closer to the coastline, bringing warmer temperatures that will have the opportunity to crack the 90 degree mark once again. In addition, the weather system’s southerly flow aloft may involve bringing monsoonal moisture north from the desert Southwest.
This higher level moisture could induce thunderstorm activity mainly from the Cascades eastward. At a time when conditions are quite dry, lightning can initiate more wildfires.
Actions To Take
Around homes and businesses, now is the time to build defensible space. A number of actions to be taken can be found at firewise.org/ such as clearing debris out of gutters and off roofs.
Avoiding fire starts is also critical. For much of the North Sound, outdoor burn bans are already in place into September. For local details about outdoor burning, visit your neighborhood fire district website.
While driving, keep burning materials inside the vehicle and tighten tow chains to avoid sparking off the pavement. When camping, ensure campfires are cold before leaving the site. History shows that 4 out of 5 wildfires are started by humans. The recent wildfires near Chelan and Vantage were both initiated by people.
Eastern Washington already has very dry conditions in place. Western Washington and the North Sound are not far behind. For the west side, a Fire Weather Watch and a Red Flag Warning may be weather alert terms in use as this summer moves into August.
