NORTH SOUND — The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) just released the latest seasonal weather outlook and the outlook for the summer may sound like a broken record. The outlook into September again reflects warmer and drier than average conditions for Western Washington and the North Sound, a trend that has been the case for much of this century thus far.
Wildfires
Conditions across the state including the North Sound are drier than usual and combined with another warmer and drier than average summer points to a heightened threat of wildfires.
The rainfall from the recent spate of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms did not have much impact on the current dry conditions. Everett – Paine Field received just under two tenths of an inch of rain. Many other parts of the North Sound had no rainfall or less than a tenth of an inch.
Eastern Washington has already experienced several dozen wildfires. A few have also broken out in the Cascades and Olympics, the season’s first roadside fire was earlier this week along SR 525 in Snohomish County.
Western Washington will likely begin to have some wildfire starts including more roadside fires heading into August as conditions continue to dry out further. Fire statistics show than about 4 out of 5 wildfires are started by humans. Lightning from thunderstorms initiate nearly all the rest of fire starts and usually in more remote areas.
According to the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, by August – all of Washington will have an above average threat of wildfires.
Steps To Take
Outdoor burn bans are already in place for most North Sound counties from Whatcom south to Snohomish County. For outdoor burning details in your area, visit your county’s fire district website.
There are a number of steps to help avoid starting any wildfires. Around your home or business, build ‘defensible space’. Visit firewise.org for a complete list of easy to do tasks to avoid having your place burn, particularly from wind-blown fires that spread quickly through both rural and urban areas.
If driving, be sure to keep all burning materials like cigarettes inside your vehicle. Tossing them outside can start roadside fires. Also tighten tow chains to avoid sparks on the pavement that also can initiate roadside fires.
When camping, ensure the campfire is cold before leaving the campsite.
Wildfire Smoke
Wildfires also produce smoke and poor air quality. In Western Washington, the region has suffered wildfire smoke 7 out of the last 9 summers dating back to 2017 when smoke from British Columbia wildfires spread into the area. You can always monitor the latest air quality readings from the Washington Dept. of Ecology’s Air Quality Map.
And remember those N-95 masks from the recent pandemic? Use them during periods of wildfire smoke to keep minute wildfire particles from reaching your lungs. Once there, those particles remain in place.
El Nino Update
By now, you are aware of the developing El Nino in the eastern Pacific tropical waters. Some are describing it as ‘strong’, or ‘super’ El Nino. And now the National Weather Service (NWS) is describing this developing El Nino as likely one of the strongest in their historical record going back to 1950.
Sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific tropical waters continue to show a sharp rise. Forecast guidance for sea surface temperatures maintain continued warming into this fall and winter. El Nino adjust how the storm track behaves, spending more time across the southern tier of the U.S. instead of further north.
As a result, the NWS just issued an El Nino Advisory. The advisory highlights that El Nino will strengthen through the end of this year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027.
El Nino primarily impacts Northern Hemisphere weather patterns during the winter season. The NWS put together a short video that helps explain El Nino.
What Does This El Nino Mean?
In the Pacific Northwest, El Nino winter season conditions usually means warmer that average conditions and often but not always, drier than average precipitation.
The latest seasonal weather outlook for this winter season reflects good odds on warmer than average temperatures and tips the chances toward drier than average precipitation.
In the wake of 4 straight below average mountain snowpack winter seasons, another dismal snowpack this coming winter is not good news. In addition, this El Nino would quite likely extend current dry conditions into 2027, with more limited water supplies heading into next summer that the CPC indicates will be another warmer and drier than average season.
What’s Next
Building higher pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest moving into next week should offer more sunshine and warmer than seasonal average temperatures with highs climbing into at least the 80s in many locations.
If longer range forecast charts are on track, there may not be any more rainfall through the rest of this month, exasperating the ongoing dry environment.
Weather forecasters, fire agencies, water supply managers, and others are all keeping an eye on the weather until the fall rains arrive. Enjoy the summer, just do so safely and take precautions from any ‘hot’ weather and the possibility of wildfires and smoke.
